After roughing up the Raiders 41-14 last week in Las Vegas, the Kansas City Chiefs (6-4) have moved into first place in the tightly-packed AFC West. Now the Chiefs get a tougher challenge Sunday when the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys (7-2) visit Arrowhead Stadium for one of the marquee match-ups of Week 11.
The Sunday, Nov. 21 late afternoon kickoff between the Chiefs and Cowboys is set for 4:25 ET and shootout is expected with the over/under of 56 points at BetMGM the highest total of the week.
The Chiefs and Cowboys game is one of the three most bet games in Week 11 at BetMGM. The contest taking the most bets is Green Bay at Minnesota. The Packers opened a 2.5-point favorite, but bettors are anticipating a Vikings victory with the betting line down to pick ‘em and then back to Packers -1 Saturday afternoon with many key Packers players missing on the injury report.
Dallas at Kansas City
BetMGM Line: Chiefs -2.5. Total 56. Moneyline KC -135, DAL +115
Dallas is more versatile on offense, and the Cowboys offense leads the NFL averaging 31.6 points and 434 yards per game at 6.3 yards per play. The running game clearly favors the Cowboys against the Chiefs defense with Dallas top-6 in the league in rushing yards (140), yards per rush (4.6) and rushing attempts (30.1) per game. Ezekiel Elliott leads the NFC in rushing with 663 yards. But Dallas will play this game without second-leading receiver Amari Cooper (COVID), and top offensive left tackle Tyron Smith is a game-time decision having missed the last two games with a high ankle sprain. Still, this game will not disappoint in scoring with both teams moving the ball and trading scoring punches.
With an over/under of 56 points, the Chiefs and Cowboys have the highest combined implied team totals of the week with a 2.5-point spread and implied score of Kansas City 30 and Dallas 27.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes passed for a season-high 406 yards and 5 touchdowns last week to pass Tom Brady for the AFC passing lead this season. Mahomes has 2,940 passing yards, and he gets another reinforcement back this week to add to the Chiefs top weapons WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce. Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is being activated having missed the last five games with a MCL sprain.
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is moving up in the regular season MVP race with +700 odds to win at BetMGM. Prescott has gone on the road twice this season against stronger defenses of Tampa Bay and New England and passed at least 50 times each game for over 400 yards. Leading receiver CeeDee Lamb scored in each of those games while totaling at least 100 receiving yards in each contest. He’ll be targeted often again against the Chiefs, and Teamranking.com defensive stats show the Chiefs defense is improving, but still allow 6.2 yards per play this season – only the Jets are worse. Prescott can carve up the Chiefs pass defense that has been among the league’s worst allowing 67% completions and 7.7 yards per pass.
The Playbook Sports Totals Tipsheet loves the Chiefs and Cowboys game over the total with some strong situational support in which both teams scored at least 35 points last game. The Chiefs have a bye next week, and betting favorites before their bye week are 8-0 over the total this season with an over/under of at least 45 points. That included the Cowboys 35-29 road win at New England as favorite in Week 6 before their bye.
Pick: Over and Cowboys
Green Bay at Minnesota
BetMGM Line: Packers -1. Total 47. Opening lines GB -2.5 and Total 49.5.
The Packers offense has failed to score more than 24 points in regulation in five straight games. Yet Green Bay has gone 4-1 with their only loss at Kansas City when Aaron Rodgers (COVID) was out. Rodgers will play against the Vikings, but he’s been limited in practice for many weeks as he has been dealing with turf toe during his COVID-19 quarantine. The Packers (8-2) have covered the point spread in nine-straight games since an opening week loss. Green Bay is currently the top playoff seed in the NFC and hold a 3.5-game lead over the Vikings (4-5) in the NFC North.
But a closer examination of this Packers vs Vikings match-up and efficiency metrics like EPA per play (Expected Points Added) and DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and you’ll see these two teams are more evenly matched that the market indicates.
Vikings RB Dalvin Cook leads the NFC averaging 92 rushing yards per game. Second-year receiver Justin Jefferson is having another Pro Bowl season with 775 receiving yards, and underrated QB Kirk Cousins has an 18-to-2 TD-INT ratio. The Vikings get some defensive reinforcements back this week including cornerback Patrick Peterson and safety Harrison Smith. The Packers will be without All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari and Pro Bowl running back Aaron Jones along with WR Allen Lazard. All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander remains out indefinitely with a shoulder injury.
The Playbook Sports newsletter points out a technical situation showing the Vikings are 10-4 as a home underdog under head coach Mike Zimmer, including 4-0 as a division home underdog.
NFL Week 11 injury report from Pro Football Focus
NFL Week 11 Betting Data
While the two games above are generating the most betting action, teams taking the most money on spread bets this week as of Friday morning at BetMGM include:
- Bears (+6) vs Ravens
- Dolphins (-3.5) at Jets
- Bengals (-1) at Raiders
- 49ers (-6.5) at Jaguars
- Texans (+10.5) at Titans
- Browns (-12) vs Lions
All those teams in bold are taking at least 75% of the point spread money (handle).
The update on the most bet teams (tickets) this week on the point spread are the Packers, Cowboys and ugly underdog Texans.
At least 90% of the over/under money has been bet over the total. Bettors are hoping for high scoring results in the Dallas at Kansas City, Cincinnati at Las Vegas and New York Giants at Tampa Bay (Monday) games.
The Vikings and Cowboys were among the most popular teaser bets, prior to the line moving down on Minnesota.
Bettors looking to parlay the Vikings and Cowboys on the moneyline would get back approx. $440 on a $100 bet for a net win of $340 if both teams win.
More bets continue to come in leading up to the Sunday’s games, and the spread, odds, totals and betting data is always subject to change.
Looks like the Packers ATS winning streak of 9-straight money-making games comes to an end, despite Green Bay taking more than 70% of the spread bets and greater than 60% of the money at BetMGM.
You can bet on it.